DECISION ANALYSIS ON THE BASIS OF EXPERT DATA AND REFLEXIVE PROCEDURES OF THE CONCLUSION

V. B. Gusev

Abstract


Relevance. At decision-making the situation is rather widespread when difficult objects of management function in the conditions of uncertainty and are characterized by existence of several criteria of a choice, and also by existence the parameters which are badly giving in to measurement or having qualitative character. In such situations it is reasonable to apply expert approaches to receiving estimates and decision-making. It in turn demands the development of special methods of formalization of the considered objects and control systems, and also the corresponding procedures of numerical processing of expert data.

Purpose. The purpose of work is development of procedures of calculation of estimates for consequences of interaction of factors of management on the basis of expert data and a method of a choice of rational decisions in the presence of several criteria.

Method. A subject of consideration is the method of the expert analysis using reflexive procedures of a multiple-valued logical conclusion for receiving transitive short circuit of estimates of mutual influence of factors and a decision-making method on the basis of the balanced accounting of several criteria.

Results. The offered method of decision-making includes two components: procedure of reflections for calculation of transitive short circuit of primary estimates and procedure of formation of the weighed criterion for the balanced accounting of several criteria considering various aspects of a choice. The flexible criterion which formation is based on balancing (the accounting of degree of importance) of maximin and minimax values of initial criteria and on use of a relevant subset of the considered factors is entered into double criteria situations. Calculation of a rational choice of structure of intangible assets of the enterprise is given as an example.

Conclusions. Specifics of the considered approach possessing basic novelty consist in the accounting of the uncertainty concluded as in properties of expert data, and available several criteria of a choice. Application of algebra of multiple-valued logic in procedure of reflections allows considering most adequately expert data at estimation of options of adoption of administrative decisions. The flexible criterion is attribute of self-organization of the operated system. The developed method of the expert analysis of factors of management considering consequences of their interaction allows estimating and allocating the most significant factors from the point of view of the set criteria, to
make rational decisions as for rapid response to current situation, and at long-term and strategic planning. The numerical example represents informative demonstration of efficiency of the offered approach.


Keywords


Expert data; multiple-valued logical conclusion, estimates of mutual influence of factors; transitive short circuit; management of intangible assets of the enterprise

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.15588/1607-3274-2017-2-16



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