DOI: https://doi.org/10.15588/1607-3274-2018-1-4

GIS-TECHNOLOGIES AND MATHEMATICAL SIMULATION TO PREDICT LIGHTNING-CAUSED FOREST FIRE DANGER

N. V. Baranovskiy, E. P. Yankovich

Abstract


Context. The components of the geoinformation system for monitoring, forecasting and assessment of forest fire danger caused by
thunderstorm activity are developed. Objective of the work is to create an embedded software tool for physically based forecasting, monitoring and evaluation of the probability of forest fire occurrence as a result of the impact of a lightning discharge on a tree trunk.
Method. Structural analysis is used to design elements and information flows inside and outside of the developed geographic information
system. Mathematical modeling is used to determine the parameters of tree ignition by the cloud-to-ground lightning discharge. Mathematically,
the process of tree trunk heating is described using a system of non-stationary heat conduction equations with a source part responsible for the heat release according to the Joule-Lenz law in the core of the tree trunk. The finite difference method is used to solve the differential heat
equation. Finite-difference analogues are solved by the double-sweep method. Program realization is implemented in the built-in high-level
language. The probability theory (conditional probability) is used to develop a probabilistic criterion for forest fire danger estimation.
Results. A software tool is developed to estimate the tree ignition delay time as a result of the impact of a cloud-to-ground lightning
discharge. The GIS-system component is developed in the high-level programming language Python. We have obtained probability distribution of forest fire occurrences from thunderstorms for the territory of the Timiryazevsky forestry in the Tomsk region is obtained.
Conclusions. We have proposed a physically proved method for forecasting, monitoring and assessing forest fire danger caused by
thunderstorm activity. The deterministic mathematical model is used to simulate tree ignition by the cloud-to-ground lightning discharge in
conjunction with the probabilistic criterion for assessing forest fire danger. We have analysed forest fire danger for a typical territory of the
Tomsk region (Timiryazevskiy forestry).

Keywords


GIS; Mathematical modeling; Forest fire danger; Forecast; Thunderstorm activity; Probability criterion.

References


Conedera M., Cesti G., Pezzatti G. B. et al. Lightning-induced

fires in the Alpine region: An increasing problem, Forest Ecology

and Management, 2006, Vol. 234, P. S68 DOI: 10.1016/

j.foreco.2006.08.096

Taylor S. W., Alexander M. E. Science, technology and human

factors in fire danger rating: the Canadian experience,

International Journal of Wildland Fire, 2006, Vol. 15, pp. 121–

DOI: 10.1071/WF05021

Baranovskiy N. V. Teplofizicheskiye aspekty prognosticheskogo

modelirovaniya lesnoy pozharnoy opasnosti: dissertatsiya …

doktora fiziko-matematicheskikh nauk. Tomsk, Tomskiy

politekhnicheskiy universitet, 2012, 436 p. (In Russian)

Development and structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather

Index System: Technical report 35, Canadian Forest Service.

Petawawa, Ontario, 1987, 37 p.

Deeming J. E., Burgan K. E., Cohen J. D. The National Fire-

Danger Rating System: General Technical report INT-39, USDA

Forest Service. Ogden, Utah, 1978, 63 p.

Camia A., Barbosa P., Amatulli G. et al. Fire danger rating in the

European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS): Current

developments, Forest Ecology and Management, 2006, Vol. 234,

P. S20. DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2006.08.036

Baranovskiy N. V., Kuznetsov G. V. Forest fire occurrences and

ecological impact prediction: monograph. Novosibirsk, Publishing

House of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Science, 2017,

p. DOI: 10.15372/FOREST2017BNV

Latham D., Williams E. Lightning and forest fires, Forest Fires:

Behavior and Ecological Effects. Amsterdam, Elsevier, 2001,

pp. 375–418. DOI: 10.1016/B978-012386660-8/50013-1

Williams E.R. The tripole structure of thunderstorms, Journal of

Geophysical Research, 1989, Vol. 94, pp. 13151–13167.

DOI: 10.1029/JD094iD11p13151

Kozlov V. I., Mullayarov V. A. Grozovaya aktivnost’ v Yakutii

[Text]. Yakutsk, YAF Izd-va SO RAN, 2004, 104 p. (In Russian)

Latham D. J. Lightning flashes from a prescribed fire-induced

cloud, Journal of Geophysical Research, 1991, Vol. 96, pp. 17151–

DOI: 10.1029/91JD01808

Ivanov V. A. Lesnyye pozhary ot groz na Yeniseyskoy ravnine:

Avtoreferat dissertatsii … kandidata sel’skokhozyaystvennykh

nauk. Krasnoyarsk, Sibirskiy gosudarstvennyy tekhnicheskiy

universitet, 1996, 20 p. (In Russian)

Uman M. A. The Lightning Discharge. N.Y., McGraw-Hill, 1969,

p.

Cummins K. L., Murphy M. J., Bardo E. A. et al. A combined

TOA/MDF tech-nology upgrade of the U.S. national lightning

detection network, Journal of Geophysical Research, 1998,

Vol. 103, pp. 9035–9044.

Azmetov R. R., Belyayev A. I., Moskovenko V. M. Perspektivy

sozdaniya Rossiyskoy sistemy elektromagnitnogo monitoringa

groz dlya nuzhd okhrany lesov ot pozharov, energetiki, aviatsii,

meteorologii i prognozirovaniya stikhiynykh bedstviy,

Sopryazhennyye zadachi mekhaniki i ekologii: Materialy

mezhdunarodnoy konferentsii. Tomsk, Izd-vo Tomskogo

universiteta, 2000, pp. 9–11. (In Russian)

Ivanov V. A. Grozoaktivnost’ i lesnyye pozhary , Lesnyye pozhary

i bor’ba s nimi. Moskva, VNIILM, 1987, pp. 208–217. (In

Russian)

Alexander M. E., Lawson B. D., Stocks B. J. et al. User guide to

the Canadian Forest Fire Behaviour Prediction System: rate of

spread relationships, Canadian Forest Service Fire Danger Group,

, 73 p.

Baranovskiy N., Zharikova M. A Web-Oriented Geoinformation

System Application for Forest Fire Danger Prediction in Typical

Forests of the Ukraine, Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and

Cartography, Thematic Cartography for the Society, 2014, pp.

–22. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-08180-9_2

Grishin A. M., Baranovskii N. V. Comparative analysis of simple

models of drying of the layer of forest combustibles, including

the data of experiments and natural observations, Journal of

Engineering Physics and Thermophysics, 2003, Vol. 76,

pp. 1154–1159.

Kuznetsov G. V., Baranovskiy N. V., Barakhnin V. B. Mathematical

simulation of heat transfer at deciduous tree ignition by cloud-toground

lightning discharge, EPJ Web of Conferences, 2015, Vol.

, Paper 01019, pp. 1–6. DOI: 10.1051/epjconf/20158201019

Esau K. Anatomy of seed plants. Wiley, 1977, 576 p.

Gusarov A. V., Smurov I. Gas-dynamic boundary conditions of

evaporation and condensation: Numerical analysis of the Knudsen

layer [Text], Physics of Fluid, 2002, Vol. 14, pp. 4242–4255.

Majumdar P. Computational Methods for Heat and Mass Transfer,

CRC Press, 2005, 744 p.

Lee K. D. Python Programming Fundamentals. London, Springer,

, 227 p. DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4471-6642-9


GOST Style Citations


1. Conedera M. Lightning-induced fires in the Alpine region: An
increasing problem / M. Conedera, G. Cesti, G.B. Pezzatti et al. / / Forest Ecology and Management. – 2006. – Vol. 234. –
P. S68 DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2006.08.096
2. Taylor S.W. Science, technology and human factors in fire danger rating: the Canadian experience / S. W. Taylor, M. E. Alexander // International Journal of Wildland Fire. – 2006. – Vol. 15. – P. 121–135. DOI: 10.1071/WF05021
3. Барановский Н.В. Теплофизические аспекты прогностичес
кого моделирования лесной пожарной опасности: диссерта-
ция … доктора физико-математических наук / Барановский
Николай Викторович. – Томск : Томский политехнический
университет, 2012. – 436 С.
4. Development and structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System: Technical report 35 / C. E. Van Wagner / Canadian Forest Service – Petawawa, Ontario, 1987. – 37 p.
5. The National Fire-Danger Rating System: General Technical report INT-39 / J. E. Deeming, K. E. Burgan, J. D. Cohen / USDA Forest Service. – Ogden, Utah, 1978. – 63 p.
6. Camia A. Fire danger rating in the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS): Current developments / A. Camia, P. Barbosa, G. Amatulli et al. // Forest Ecology and Management. – 2006. – Vol. 234. – P. S20. DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2006.08.036
7. Baranovskiy N. V. Forest fire occurrences and ecological impact prediction: monograph / N. V. Baranovskiy, G. V. Kuznetsov. – Novosibirsk : Publishing House of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Science. – 2017. – 259 p. DOI: 10.15372/FOREST2017BNV
8. Latham D. Lightning and forest fires, Forest Fires: Behavior and Ecological Effects / D. Latham, E. Williams. – Amsterdam :
Elsevier. – 2001. – P. 375–418. DOI: 10.1016/B978-012386660-8/50013-1 9. Williams E.R. The tripole structure of thunderstorms / E. R. Williams // Journal of Geophysical Research. – 1989. – Vol. 94. – P. 13151–13167. DOI: 10.1029/JD094iD11p13151                                       10. Козлов В. И. Грозовая активность в Якутии / В. И. Козлов,
В. А. Муллаяров. – Якутск : ЯФ Изд-ва СО РАН, 2004. – 104 c.
11. Latham D. J. Lightning flashes from a prescribed fire-induced cloud / D. J. Latham // Journal of Geophysical Research. – 1991. – Vol. 96. – P. 17151–17157. DOI: 10.1029/91JD01808
12. Иванов В. А. Лесные пожары от гроз на Енисейской равнине: Автореферат диссертации … кандидата сельскохозяйственных наук / Иванов Валерий Александрович – Красноярск: Сибирский государственный технический университет, 1996. – 20 c.
13. Uman M. A. The Lightning Discharge / M. A. Uman. – N.Y. :
McGraw-Hill,1969. – 390 p.
14. Cummins K. L. A combined TOA/MDF technology upgrade of the U.S. national lightning detection network / K. L. Cummins, M. J. Murphy, E. A. Bardo et al. // Journal of Geophysical Research. – 1998. – Vol. 103. – P. 9035–9044.
15. Азметов Р. Р. Перспективы создания Российской системы электромагнитного мониторинга гроз для нужд охраны лесов от пожаров, энергетики, авиации, метеорологии и прогнозирования стихийных бедствий / Р. Р. Азметов, А. И. Беляев, В. М. Московенко // Сопряженные задачи механики и экологии: Материалы международной конференции. – Томск : Изд-во Томского университета, 2000. – С. 9–11.
16.Иванов В. А. Грозоактивность и лесные пожары /
В. А. Иванов // Лесные пожары и борьба с ними. – Москва :
ВНИИЛМ, 1987. – С. 208–217.
17. Alexander M. E. User guide to the Canadian Forest Fire Behaviour Prediction System: rate of spread relationships / M. E. Alexander, B. D. Lawson, B. J. Stocks et al. // Canadian Forest Service Fire Danger Group. – 1984. – 73 p.
18. Baranovskiy N. A Web-Oriented Geoinformation System
Application for Forest Fire Danger Prediction in Typical Forests
of the Ukrainem / N. Baranovskiy, M. Zharikova // Lecture
Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography, Thematic
Cartography for the Society. – 2014. – P. 13–22. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-08180-9_2
19. Grishin A. M. Comparative analysis of simple models of drying of the layer of forest combustibles, including the data of
experiments and natural observations / A. M. Grishin,
N. V. Baranovskii // Journal of Engineering Physics and
Thermophysics. – 2003. – Vol. 76. – P. 1154–1159.
20. Kuznetsov G. V. Mathematical simulation of heat transfer at deciduous tree ignition by cloud-to-ground lightning discharge / G. V. Kuznetsov, N. V. Baranovskiy, V. B. Barakhnin // EPJ Web of Conferences. – 2015. – Vol. 82, Paper 01019. – P. 1–6. DOI: 10.1051/epjconf/20158201019
21. Esau K. Anatomy of seed plants / K. Esau. – Wiley, 1977. – 576 p.
22. Gusarov A. V. Gas-dynamic boundary conditions of evaporation and condensation: Numerical analysis of the Knudsen layer / A. V. Gusarov, I. Smurov // Physics of Fluid. – 2002. – Vol. 14. – P.4242–4255.
23. Majumdar P. Computational Methods for Heat and Mass Transfer / P. Majumdar. – CRC Press, 2005. – 744 p.
24. Lee K. D. Python Programming Fundamentals / K. D. Lee. – London : Springer, 2014. – 227 p. DOI:10.1007/978-1-4471-6642-9






Copyright (c) 2018 N. V. Baranovskiy, E. P. Yankovich

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Address of the journal editorial office:
Editorial office of the journal «Radio Electronics, Computer Science, Control»,
Zaporizhzhya National Technical University, 
Zhukovskiy street, 64, Zaporizhzhya, 69063, Ukraine. 
Telephone: +38-061-769-82-96 – the Editing and Publishing Department.
E-mail: rvv@zntu.edu.ua

The reference to the journal is obligatory in the cases of complete or partial use of its materials.