CONTROL OF TECHNICAL SYSTEMS BASED ON PREDICTION OF THEIR INDIVIDUAL RESOURCE

V. V. Nahorny, E. A. Lavrov, N. A. Fedotova, E. G. Kuznetsov

Abstract


Contex. The actual task of forecasting an individual resource of a variety of design and design of technical systems was solved.
Objective. The purpose of the work is to develop a methodology for managing the operation of complex technical systems based on
the forecasting of their individual resource.
Method. Modern management methods allow you to make advance management decisions to prevent accidents and the consequent
technogenic catastrophes. These decisions are based on extrapolating the value of the monitored signal to the maximum permissible level.
However, the norms are compiled based on average statistical data, which can only relate to a controlled sample of the machine with a
certain degree of probability. This is the cause of errors in predicting the moment when this sample is stopped for repairs. This problem is
especially urgent for complex and responsible technical systems manufactured in small series or even in single specimens. Such systems do not have statistical data to create these norms.
To solve this problem, another management methodology was developed that excludes the extrapolation procedure and allows
determining the operating time of the technical system prior to repair based on the identification results of the model, describing the time
variation of the value of the monitored parameter
Results. The methodology of management of technical systems is developed, ensuring the control of their current technical condition
based on information on their individual resource. The methodology was used to control the gradual deterioration of the technical state of
the hydro turbine, which resulted in its catastrophic destruction.
Conclusions. The performed calculations confirmed the efficiency of the proposed methodology for managing the operation of
technical systems based on the forecasting of their individual resource, which makes it possible to recommend it for use in practice when
solving problems of controlling the operation of complex technical systems, thus preventing their accidents, often leading to man-made
disasters. Prospects for further research will be the development of a forecasting - diagnostic complex, the software of which reflects the
algorithm for applying the developed methodology of forecasting an individual resource of various designs and designation of technical
systems.

Keywords


control; individual resource; software product; rotor systems; resource forecast; identification; information signal trend; mathematical model; defect-free period; condition of supervised equipment.

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GOST Style Citations


1. Ksendzov V. N. Forecasting the residual life of machine drives
/ V. N. Ksendzov, G. A. Dyko, S. P. Murashko // Reliability and
quality control. – 1988. – № 10. – P. 18–24.
2. Haponen N. А. Prospects for the development of nondestructive
testing / N. A. Haponen, G. P. Ivanov, A. A. Hudashin // Safety in
industry. – 2001. – № 1. – P. 48–50.
3. Strelnikov V.P. Determination of the expected residual life at the
DM-distribution / V. P. Strelnikov // Mathematical machines and
systems. – 2000. – № 1. – P. 94–100.
4. Izermann R. Perspective methods of monitoring, detection and
diagnostics of faults and their application / R. Isermann //
Instruments and control systems. – 1998. – № 4. – P. 56–70.
5. Analysis of the applicability of the equations and investigation of
the shape of the fatigue curve / [Yu. S. Borisov,
Yu. N. Blagoveshchensky, S. S. Dmitrichenko, etc.] // Factory
laboratory. Diagnostics of materials. – 2000. – № 10. – P. 41–
52.
6. Calculations and strength tests. Methods for calculating the
characteristics of fatigue resistance : GOST 25.504-82. – [Effective
from 1983-07-01]. – М. : Издательство стандартов, 1982. – 80 p.
7. Kopnov V. A. Residual life, linear fatigue damage accumulation
and optimal stopping / V. A. Kopnov // Reliability Engineering
and System Safety. – 1993. – № 40. – P. 319–325.
8. Brockwell P. J. Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting /
P. J. Brockwell, D. V. Davis. – Springer-Verlag, 2002. – 153 p.
9. Li C. J. Gear fatigue crack prognosis using embedded model, gear
dynamic model and fracture mechanics / C. J. Li, H. Lee //
Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing. – 2005. – No. 19. –
P. 836–846.

10. Liao H.T. Maintenance of continuously monitored degrading
systems / H.T. Liao, E.A. Elsayed, L.Y. Chan // European Journal
of Operational Research. – 2006. – No. 175(2). – P. 821–835.
11. Lin D. Using principal components in a proportional hazards
model with applications in conditionisbased maintenance / D.
Lin, D. Banjevic, A. K. Jardine // Journal of the Operational
Research Society. – 2006. – No. 57. – P 910–919.
12. Mechanical vibration of machines with operating speeds from 10
to 200 rev/c – Basis for specifying evaluation standards : ISO
2372. – [Effective from 1974-11-01]. – Geneve : ISO, 1974. –
34 p.
13.Stephens I. Ralph. Metal Fatigue in Engineering, second ed / Ralph
I. Stephens. – Sidney : John Wiley &Sons John Wiley & Sons,
Inc, 2001. – 496 p.
14. Claude E. Shannon. The Mathematical Theory of Communication
/ Shannon E. Claude, Weaver Warren. – Illinois : University of
Illinois Press, 1963. – 132 p.
15. Yakushev A. I. Interchangeability, standardization and technical
measurements, sixth ed. / A. I. Yakushev, L. N. Vorontsov,
N. M. Fedotov. – Moscow : Mashinostroyeniye, 1986. – 352 p.

 





DOI: https://doi.org/10.15588/1607-3274-2018-1-20



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