DOI: https://doi.org/10.15588/1607-3274-2018-1-20

### CONTROL OF TECHNICAL SYSTEMS BASED ON PREDICTION OF THEIR INDIVIDUAL RESOURCE

#### Abstract

Objective. The purpose of the work is to develop a methodology for managing the operation of complex technical systems based on

the forecasting of their individual resource.

Method. Modern management methods allow you to make advance management decisions to prevent accidents and the consequent

technogenic catastrophes. These decisions are based on extrapolating the value of the monitored signal to the maximum permissible level.

However, the norms are compiled based on average statistical data, which can only relate to a controlled sample of the machine with a

certain degree of probability. This is the cause of errors in predicting the moment when this sample is stopped for repairs. This problem is

especially urgent for complex and responsible technical systems manufactured in small series or even in single specimens. Such systems do not have statistical data to create these norms.

To solve this problem, another management methodology was developed that excludes the extrapolation procedure and allows

determining the operating time of the technical system prior to repair based on the identification results of the model, describing the time

variation of the value of the monitored parameter

Results. The methodology of management of technical systems is developed, ensuring the control of their current technical condition

based on information on their individual resource. The methodology was used to control the gradual deterioration of the technical state of

the hydro turbine, which resulted in its catastrophic destruction.

Conclusions. The performed calculations confirmed the efficiency of the proposed methodology for managing the operation of

technical systems based on the forecasting of their individual resource, which makes it possible to recommend it for use in practice when

solving problems of controlling the operation of complex technical systems, thus preventing their accidents, often leading to man-made

disasters. Prospects for further research will be the development of a forecasting - diagnostic complex, the software of which reflects the

algorithm for applying the developed methodology of forecasting an individual resource of various designs and designation of technical

systems.

#### Keywords

#### Full Text:

PDF (Українська)#### References

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#### GOST Style Citations

1. Ksendzov V. N. Forecasting the residual life of machine drives

/ V. N. Ksendzov, G. A. Dyko, S. P. Murashko // Reliability and

quality control. – 1988. – № 10. – P. 18–24.

2. Haponen N. А. Prospects for the development of nondestructive

testing / N. A. Haponen, G. P. Ivanov, A. A. Hudashin // Safety in

industry. – 2001. – № 1. – P. 48–50.

3. Strelnikov V.P. Determination of the expected residual life at the

DM-distribution / V. P. Strelnikov // Mathematical machines and

systems. – 2000. – № 1. – P. 94–100.

4. Izermann R. Perspective methods of monitoring, detection and

diagnostics of faults and their application / R. Isermann //

Instruments and control systems. – 1998. – № 4. – P. 56–70.

5. Analysis of the applicability of the equations and investigation of

the shape of the fatigue curve / [Yu. S. Borisov,

Yu. N. Blagoveshchensky, S. S. Dmitrichenko, etc.] // Factory

laboratory. Diagnostics of materials. – 2000. – № 10. – P. 41–

52.

6. Calculations and strength tests. Methods for calculating the

characteristics of fatigue resistance : GOST 25.504-82. – [Effective

from 1983-07-01]. – М. : Издательство стандартов, 1982. – 80 p.

7. Kopnov V. A. Residual life, linear fatigue damage accumulation

and optimal stopping / V. A. Kopnov // Reliability Engineering

and System Safety. – 1993. – № 40. – P. 319–325.

8. Brockwell P. J. Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting /

P. J. Brockwell, D. V. Davis. – Springer-Verlag, 2002. – 153 p.

9. Li C. J. Gear fatigue crack prognosis using embedded model, gear

dynamic model and fracture mechanics / C. J. Li, H. Lee //

Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing. – 2005. – No. 19. –

P. 836–846.

systems / H.T. Liao, E.A. Elsayed, L.Y. Chan // European Journal

of Operational Research. – 2006. – No. 175(2). – P. 821–835.

11. Lin D. Using principal components in a proportional hazards

model with applications in conditionisbased maintenance / D.

Lin, D. Banjevic, A. K. Jardine // Journal of the Operational

Research Society. – 2006. – No. 57. – P 910–919.

12. Mechanical vibration of machines with operating speeds from 10

to 200 rev/c – Basis for specifying evaluation standards : ISO

2372. – [Effective from 1974-11-01]. – Geneve : ISO, 1974. –

34 p.

13.Stephens I. Ralph. Metal Fatigue in Engineering, second ed / Ralph

I. Stephens. – Sidney : John Wiley &Sons John Wiley & Sons,

Inc, 2001. – 496 p.

14. Claude E. Shannon. The Mathematical Theory of Communication

/ Shannon E. Claude, Weaver Warren. – Illinois : University of

Illinois Press, 1963. – 132 p.

15. Yakushev A. I. Interchangeability, standardization and technical

measurements, sixth ed. / A. I. Yakushev, L. N. Vorontsov,

N. M. Fedotov. – Moscow : Mashinostroyeniye, 1986. – 352 p.

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