THE METHOD OF PREDICTION OF SOFTWARE PROJECTS SUCCESS BASED ON THE ANALYSIS OF PREDICTED VALUES OF SOFTWARE CHARACTERISTICS

A. V. Krasiy, T. O. Hovorushchenko

Abstract


The task of development of methodological support for predicting of the software projects success is solved. The object of research is the
process of predicting of software projects success at the early lifecycle stages. The subject of the research is a method of prediction of software
projects success based on the analysis of predicted values of software characteristics. The purpose of the work is to increase the accuracy of
selection of software projects and to increase the success of software projects. The intelligent method of prediction of software projects success is proposed. It provides to calculate the integrative indicators of success of various software projects based on the predicted (by artificial neural network) values of the characteristics of the software developed for the project. It also provides to calculate the probability of success of
software projects. The method differs from the known methods, that provides to predict the success of software projects, compare software
projects on the main characteristics of the project and the software and on the predicted value of the probability of success (and not just on
the cost and duration, as is happening now), and perform the grounded choice of software project by customer and by developer for further
realization. Experiments on investigations of the method operability were performed The experimental results provide to recommend the
proposed method for use in practice.

Keywords


software, software project, software requirements specification, integrative indicator of software project, success of software project.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.15588/1607-3274-2015-2-7

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